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Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
DAL@IND DAL -3 · O/U 50.5
DAL
Sunday 2026-11-08
1:00pm
FOX
Indoors
IND
How to attack
DAL offense vs IND defense
  • Run the ballShakyIND ranks 29th vs the run (4.5 per carry). Javonte Williams has 74% of the backs' carries lately (16 a game).
    • Javonte Williams: 110 carries here, 4.3 per carry, 47% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (50 yds wk 5 vs PIT, 35 wk 4 vs WAS); without them 4.0 (league 3.9)
    • IND allowed more than league average per carry in 4 of 7 games
    • Tyler Goodson: 21 carries here, 3.4 per carry, 43% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Javonte Williams (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
IND offense vs DAL defense
  • Run outside, not insideMixedDAL allows 5.9 per carry outside the tackles (29th) but 3.3 between the guards (12th). Jonathan Taylor has 69% of the backs' carries lately (18 a game).
    • Without CB Reddy Steward (wk 6, 7): 4.7 per carry on 27 carries; with him 8.7 on 23; expected back
    • Jonathan Taylor: 85 carries here, 4.7 per carry, 42% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
    • DAL allowed more than league average per carry in 4 of 7 games
    • Seth McGowan: 16 carries here, 4.1 per carry, 31% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Jonathan Taylor (the data leans over).
  • Finish in the red zoneDAL allows touchdowns on 71.4% of red-zone trips (28th); IND scores them on 60.0% (16th).
    • DAL allowed TDs on 20 of 28 trips (4/4, 2/4, 4/6, 2/3, 3/4, 2/4, 3/3 by game)
    • IND scored TDs on 12 of 20 trips (3/3, 2/3, 1/3, 3/3, 1/3, 2/4, 0/1 by game)
  • Throw to the wide receiversShakyDAL ranks 29th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 65% caught, 9.0 yds per target, 163 per game. Best fits: Keenan Allen (22% of targets) and Josh Downs (19% of targets).
    • Without CB Reddy Steward (wk 6, 7): 7.7 yds per target on 43 targets; with him 12.8 on 33; expected back
    • Keenan Allen on these targets: 43, 67% caught, 6.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (64 yds wk 5 vs TB, 52 wk 4 vs HOU); without them 8.2 (league 8.1)
    • Mostly one game: wk 4 vs HOU, 14.2 yds per target on 20
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Keenan Allen (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDAL 3-4, 2nd in the NFC East (1.5 back); IND 2-5, 2nd in the AFC South (2.5 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2022 wk 13: DAL 54-19 at DAL -- first meeting since 2022.
  • RevengeDAL vs a former team: Malik Hooker (S, IND 2017-19).
vs ARILast week@ JAX
vs SFNext weekvs MIA
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
3,402 mi20th15th2,421 mi
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
3rdOffense27th
32ndDefense23rd
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−3 DAL vs IND +3
run OFF6th29thrun DEF
pass protection*7th29thpass rush*
early-down OFF4th26thearly-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 3rd1st21stDEF vs 11 personnel*
run blocking*6th25thrun DEF up front*
OFF vs zone*5th24thzone coverage*zone rate 26th
run DEF30th4thrun OFF
pass rush w/o blitz30th6thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF32nd13ththird-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*32nd14th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 21st
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 27th20th4thDEF vs 12 personnel*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−3 DAL vs IND +3
DAL OFF vs IND DEF
OFF vs the blitz11th24thblitzing DEFblitz rate 31st
play-action OFFPA rate 24th12th22ndplay-action DEF
protection vs no blitz11th19thpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs man*18th11thman coverage*man rate 7th
big-play OFF23rd17thbig-play DEF
pass OFF9th10thpass DEF
third-down OFF3rd3rdthird-down DEF
DAL DEF vs IND OFF
man coverage*man rate 9th17th26thOFF vs man*
early-down DEF29th22ndearly-down OFF
run DEF up front*21st14thrun blocking*
DEF vs 12 personnel*20th14th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 6th
pass DEF32nd28thpass OFF
big-play DEF28th26thbig-play OFF
pass rush*18th22ndpass protection*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 19th21st25thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF25th28thplay-action OFFPA rate 5th
zone coverage*zone rate 24th32nd30thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
28.3s2ndSeconds between snaps24th31.2s
67.38thPlays per game10th66.9
+1.3%8thPass rate over expected24th-3.1%
9%6thNo-huddle rate27th3%
66%11thShotgun rate16th62%
47%31stMotion rate10th62%
21%24thPlay-action rate5th29%
2.77s19thTime to throw*20th2.77s
74%3rd11 personnel*21st57%
16%27th12 personnel*6th33%
28%19thDEF blitz rate31st22%
27%9thDEF man rate*7th30%
66.110thPlays faced per game30th60.3
DAL away 1 ATS trend
IND home 3 ATS trends
Over / Under
2 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.