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Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
DET@MIA DET -7 · O/U 47.5
DET
Sunday 2026-11-08
1:00pm
FOX
81°F · wind 14 mph · 💧 20%
MIA
How to attack
DET offense vs MIA defense
  • Get the tight end involvedSolidMIA ranks 32nd vs tight ends in EPA per target: 92% caught, 9.3 yds per target, 75 per game. Best fits: Sam LaPorta (14% of targets, 5 in the red zone).
    • Sam LaPorta on these targets: 39, 72% caught, 8.6 yds each (league 72%, 7.1)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
    • Last 2 games MIA allowed 6.8 per target; 10.7 before
    AngleSam LaPorta over 50.5 rec yds (-111 DK); Sam LaPorta over 4.5 catches (-131 DK).
  • Throw to the backsMixedMIA ranks 31st vs backs in EPA per target: 85% caught, 6.9 yds per target, 46 per game. Best fits: Jahmyr Gibbs (18% of targets).
    • Jahmyr Gibbs on these targets: 40, 80% caught, 6.5 yds each (league 78%, 5.6)
    • Two big plays make it (41 yds wk 7 vs NYJ, 21 wk 2 vs SF); without them 5.6 (league 5.6)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 6 games
    AngleJahmyr Gibbs over 36.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Jahmyr Gibbs over 4.5 catches (-112 FD).
  • Lean on play actionDET uses play action on 30.8% of dropbacks (4th-most) and ranks 3rd in EPA on it; MIA ranks 32nd against it.
    AngleJared Goff over 268.5 pass yds (-111 DK).
MIA offense vs DET defense
  • Get the tight end involvedSolidDET ranks 31st vs tight ends in EPA per target: 77% caught, 8.2 yds per target, 100 per game. Best fits: Greg Dulcich (19% of targets).
    • Greg Dulcich on these targets: 22, 82% caught, 9.7 yds each (league 72%, 7.1)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Greg Dulcich (the data leans over).
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedDET ranks 32nd vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 66% caught, 8.4 yds per target, 188 per game. Best fits: Malik Washington (23% of targets) and Kevin Coleman Jr. (16% of targets).
    • Without CB Rock Ya-Sin (wk 4, 5): 7.8 yds per target on 52 targets; with him 10.7 on 41; expected back
    • Malik Washington on these targets: 39, 67% caught, 7.4 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (47 yds wk 1 vs NO, 43 wk 2 vs BUF); without them 7.8 (league 8.1)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Malik Washington (the data leans over).
  • Finish in the red zoneDET allows touchdowns on 72.0% of red-zone trips (26th); MIA scores them on 60.0% (15th).
    • DET allowed TDs on 18 of 25 trips (4/5, 5/5, 2/3, 3/4, 3/4, 1/4 by game)
    • MIA scored TDs on 9 of 15 trips (1/2, 0/2, 1/2, 1/2, 3/4, 3/3 by game)
    AngleOllie Gordon II anytime TD (+135).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDET 4-2, 3rd in the NFC North (2 back); MIA 1-5, 4th in the AFC East (4 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2022 wk 8: MIA 31-27 at DET -- first meeting since 2022.
  • SpotMIA won 28-25 at NYJ as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
vs MINLast weekvs NE
int'l NENext week@ IND
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,143 mi7th14th2,171 mi
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
5thOffense22nd
30thDefense29th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−7 DET vs MIA +7
OFF vs the blitz3rd32ndblitzing DEFblitz rate 24th
play-action OFFPA rate 4th3rd32ndplay-action DEF
pass OFF5th31stpass DEF
early-down OFF2nd28thearly-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 16th2nd25thDEF vs 11 personnel*
OFF vs zone*4th26thzone coverage*zone rate 13th
pass rush*8th29thpass protection*
OFF vs man*4th23rdman coverage*man rate 20th
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 4th10th28thDEF vs 12 personnel*
run OFF11th27thrun DEF
run DEF up front*28th8thrun blocking*
big-play DEF29th10thbig-play OFF
third-down DEF29th14ththird-down OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−7 DET vs MIA +7
DET OFF vs MIA DEF
pass protection*3rd17thpass rush*
big-play OFF6th16thbig-play DEF
third-down OFF24th31stthird-down DEF
run blocking*10th17thrun DEF up front*
protection vs no blitz19th17thpass rush w/o blitz
DET DEF vs MIA OFF
early-down DEF22nd29thearly-down OFF
run DEF13th19thrun OFF
play-action DEF18th24thplay-action OFFPA rate 12th
DEF vs 11 personnel*29th16th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 20th
man coverage*man rate 16th25th17thOFF vs man*
pass DEF29th23rdpass OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 18th22nd16thOFF vs the blitz
pass rush w/o blitz8th9thprotection vs no blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 17th29th26thOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 12 personnel*16th12th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 31st
Pace & tendencies
29.8s12thSeconds between snaps32nd32.9s
68.26thPlays per game31st59.2
-1.6%21stPass rate over expected31st-9.4%
5%15thNo-huddle rate29th2%
49%31stShotgun rate22nd57%
55%22ndMotion rate2nd74%
31%4thPlay-action rate12th25%
2.74s22ndTime to throw*1st3.28s
59%16th11 personnel*20th58%
34%4th12 personnel*31st10%
28%18thDEF blitz rate24th26%
20%16thDEF man rate*20th18%
73.01stPlays faced per game29th60.3
DET away 2 ATS trends
Over / Under
2 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.