Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
GB@
NE
NE -3 · O/U 47.5
GBSunday 2026-11-08
4:25pm
FOX
42°F · wind 8 mph · 💧 4%
NEHow to attack
GB offense vs NE defense- Run outside, not insideMixedNE allows 4.5 per carry outside the tackles (27th) but 3.3 between the guards (10th).
- Without CB Charles Woods (wk 3): 6.1 per carry on 13 carries; with him 4.1 on 56; expected back
- NE allowed more than league average per carry in 5 of 7 games
- MarShawn Lloyd: 36 carries here, 2.8 per carry, 28% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
- Kaleb Johnson: 13 carries here, 2.8 per carry, 15% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
- Attack the deep leftShakyNE gives up 15.1 yds per target to the deep left (31st, 17 targets). Matthew Golden has 7 targets there this season.
- Without CB Carlton Davis (wk 2, 5, 6, 7): 19.6 yds per target on 10 targets; with him 8.7 on 7; expected back
- Matthew Golden on these targets: 7, 43% caught, 11.4 yds each (league 40%, 10.9)
- Two big plays make it (58 yds wk 7 vs CHI, 48 wk 6 vs NYJ); without them 10.1 (league 10.9)
AngleMatthew Golden over 62.5 rec yds (-114 FD). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
NE offense vs GB defense- Run outside, not insideShakyGB allows 5.1 per carry outside the tackles (31st) but 2.6 between the guards (1st). Rhamondre Stevenson has 47% of the backs' carries lately (11 a game).
- Without LB Edgerrin Cooper (wk 5, 6, 7): 4.1 per carry on 43 carries; with him 5.8 on 60; expected back
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 43% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
- Two big plays make it (55 yds wk 3 vs ATL, 31 wk 3 vs ATL); without them 4.3 (league 4.6)
- Mostly one game: wk 3 vs ATL, 8.0 per carry on 25
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Rhamondre Stevenson (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky. - Tough spot for A.J. BrownMixedGB ranks 2nd vs wide receivers (7.2 yds per target). He gets 21% of NE's targets.
- A.J. Brown on these targets: 20, 45% caught, 5.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- GB allowed less than league average per target in 5 of 7 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for A.J. Brown (the data leans under). - Protect the ballGB has 13 takeaways (2nd-most); NE has 14 giveaways (2nd-most per play).Angleno INTs line posted yet for Drake Maye (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesGB 4-3, 4th in the NFC North (2.5 back); NE 4-3, 2nd in the AFC East (1.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2022 wk 4: GB 27-24 at GB -- first meeting since 2022.
- SpotGB has 3 more days of rest.
vs CARLast week@ MIA
vs MINNext weekint'l DET
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,445 mi10th22nd4,129 mi
Exclude GB weeks
Exclude NE weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
13thOffense10th
8thDefense14th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3 GB vs NE −3
vs NE −3run DEF up front*1st20thrun blocking*
play-action DEF10th27thplay-action OFFPA rate 23rd
play-action OFFPA rate 26th16th31stplay-action DEF
run blocking*27th6thrun DEF up front*
run OFF31st11thrun DEF
third-down OFF28th8ththird-down DEF
pass rush w/o blitz28th8thprotection vs no blitz
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 14th26th7thDEF vs 12 personnel*
third-down DEF28th9ththird-down OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3 GB vs NE −3
vs NE −3GB OFF vs NE DEF
OFF vs zone*12th25thzone coverage*zone rate 31st
pass protection*23rd10thpass rush*
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 10th20th8thDEF vs 11 personnel*
early-down OFF28th18thearly-down DEF
big-play OFF19th12thbig-play DEF
pass OFF20th16thpass DEF
protection vs no blitz21st26thpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs the blitz17th13thblitzing DEFblitz rate 6th
OFF vs man*3rd2ndman coverage*man rate 2nd
GB DEF vs NE OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 8th1st7thOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 11 personnel*16th5th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 14th
blitzing DEFblitz rate 12th17th8thOFF vs the blitz
pass DEF8th2ndpass OFF
man coverage*man rate 25th26th20thOFF vs man*
run DEF24th29thrun OFF
big-play DEF4th4thbig-play OFF
pass rush*24th28thpass protection*
early-down DEF16th16thearly-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*24th19th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 17th
Pace & tendencies
29.5s9thSeconds between snaps23rd31.1s
64.318thPlays per game17th64.6
+1.3%7thPass rate over expected6th+2.1%
9%7thNo-huddle rate31st0%
69%6thShotgun rate20th58%
62%9thMotion rate20th55%
19%26thPlay-action rate23rd21%
2.52s32ndTime to throw*2nd3.19s
62%10th11 personnel*14th59%
25%14th12 personnel*17th22%
33%12thDEF blitz rate6th39%
17%25thDEF man rate*2nd38%
68.67thPlays faced per game26th61.1
GB
away
1 ATS trend
GB+3
ATScoolingLaFleur as a dog
63.6%
win rate
28-16-1
record
+21.5%
roi
+4.0ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWWWWLWWLPLWLLLWWW
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +6.3 ppg
last 10: 4-5-1 (44.4%) · avg cover +1.3 ppg
since 2003: 28-16-1 (63.6%) · avg cover +4.0 ppg
NE
home
2 ATS trends
NE-3
ATSfadeFading Love on the road, outdoors
72.2%
win rate
13-5-1
record
+37.9%
roi
+0.3ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWWWWLWWLWWLWWWWWP
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
since 2003: 13-5-1 (72.2%) · avg cover +0.3 ppg
NE-3
ATSMaye as a home fav
75.0%
win rate
9-3
record
+43.2%
roi
+8.5ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWLWWWWWWWL
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +8.8 ppg
since 2003: 9-3 (75.0%) · avg cover +8.5 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Over 47.5
Over
Drake Maye at home
75.0%
win rate
15-5
record
+43.2%
roi
+2.3ppg
avg over
🔥
WWWWWWLLWWWLWWWLWLWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over -0.3 ppg
since 2003: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg over +2.3 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Mike Vrabel as a fav of 3 points or fewer
65.2%
win rate
15-8-2
record
+24.5%
roi
+2.7ppg
avg under
📈
LLLWWLPWPWWWWWLWWWWL
last 20: 12-6-2 (66.7%) · avg under +1.4 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +4.5 ppg
since 2003: 15-8-2 (65.2%) · avg under +2.7 ppg
Under 47.5
Undercooling
In a non-conference game, in the cold
57.0%
win rate
90-68-1
record
+8.7%
roi
-0.6ppg
avg under
📈
LWWWWWWWLWLLLWLLLWLW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg under -2.1 ppg
last 10: 3-7 (30.0%) · avg under -8.0 ppg
since 2003: 90-68-1 (57.0%) · avg under -0.6 ppg
- Gillette Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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