Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends

How to attack

HOU offense vs LAC defense

Run outside, not insideMixedLAC allows 4.8 per carry outside the tackles (26th) but 4.0 between the guards (9th). Woody Marks has 76% of the backs' carries lately (16 a game).
- Woody Marks: 34 carries here, 4.0 per carry, 47% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
- Two big plays make it (28 yds wk 4 vs SEA, 18 wk 1 vs ARI); without them 4.2 (league 4.6)
- LAC allowed more than league average per carry in 4 of 6 games
- David Montgomery: 22 carries here, 2.5 per carry, 27% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Woody Marks (the data leans over).
Quick game blunts the rushShakyC.J. Stroud is hit or sacked on only 11.9% of dropbacks (6th-fewest), which takes the edge off LAC's rush (16.7%, 8th-most).
- HOU's QB hit or sacked on 8% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 13% before
- LAC above the league hit-and-sack rate in 3 of 6 games
- Last 2 games LAC hit or sacked the QB on 9% of dropbacks; 21% before
Angleno completions line posted yet for C.J. Stroud (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.

LAC offense vs HOU defense

Run inside, not outsideMixedHOU allows 4.3 per carry between the guards (32nd) but 2.7 outside the tackles (1st). Omarion Hampton has 44% of the backs' carries lately (10 a game).
- Without LB Henry To'oTo'o (wk 2, 3, 4, 5): 3.8 per carry on 61 carries; with him 4.9 on 57; expected back
- Omarion Hampton: 52 carries here, 3.8 per carry, 37% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
- Two big plays make it (42 yds wk 7 vs NYG, 30 wk 7 vs NYG); without them 3.8 (league 3.7)
- HOU allowed more than league average per carry in 6 of 7 games
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Omarion Hampton (the data leans over).
Attack the deep rightShakyHOU gives up 16.6 yds per target to the deep right (30th, 18 targets). Quentin Johnston has 5 targets there this season.
- Without S Jalen Pitre (wk 6, 7): 12.4 yds per target on 5 targets; with him 18.2 on 13; expected back
- Quentin Johnston on these targets: 5, 20% caught, 8.8 yds each (league 40%, 11.3)
- Mostly one game: wk 1 vs BUF, 34.5 yds per target on 4
- HOU allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Quentin Johnston (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.

Motivation & storylines

StakesHOU 2-5, 3rd in the AFC South (2.5 back); LAC 0-6, 4th in the AFC West (5 back).
HistoryLast met 2025 wk 17: HOU 20-16 at LAC.
HistoryHOU eliminated LAC in the 2024 Wild Card round (32-12).
SpotHOU off a bye; HOU lost 27-21 vs NYG as a 10-point favorite last week.