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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
JAX@BAL BAL -2.5 · O/U 48.5
JAX
Thursday 2026-11-05
8:15pm
PRIME VIDEO
63°F · wind 12 mph · 💧 33%
BAL
How to attack
JAX offense vs BAL defense
  • Throw to the wide receiversSolidBAL ranks 31st vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 67% caught, 9.3 yds per target, 182 per game. Best fits: Parker Washington (24% of targets, 5 in the red zone) and Jakobi Meyers (18% of targets, 4 in the red zone).
    • Without S Jaylinn Hawkins (wk 7): 12.8 yds per target on 17 targets; with him 8.8 on 120; expected back
    • Parker Washington on these targets: 46, 57% caught, 9.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • BAL allowed more than league average per target in 5 of 7 games
    • Last 2 games BAL allowed 10.6 per target; 8.9 before
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Parker Washington (the data leans over).
  • Finish in the red zoneBAL allows touchdowns on 68.0% of red-zone trips (24th); JAX scores them on 66.7% (10th).
    • BAL allowed TDs on 17 of 25 trips (3/3, 2/3, 3/6, 2/4, 1/3, 1/1, 5/5 by game)
    • JAX scored TDs on 12 of 18 trips (2/2, 1/2, 5/5, 1/2, 0/3, 3/4 by game)
    AngleBhayshul Tuten anytime TD (-110).
  • Run inside, not outsideShakyBAL allows 3.3 per carry between the guards (24th) but 4.0 outside the tackles (11th). Bhayshul Tuten has 67% of the backs' carries lately (17 a game).
    • Without DL Nnamdi Madubuike (wk 1, 2): 4.2 per carry on 19 carries; with him 3.0 on 58; expected back
    • Bhayshul Tuten: 41 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 34% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 5 vs ATL, 12 wk 1 vs IND); without them 3.0 (league 3.7)
    • Mostly one game: wk 1 vs IND, 5.5 per carry on 6
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Bhayshul Tuten (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
BAL offense vs JAX defense
  • Tough sledding for Derrick HenrySolidJAX ranks 4th vs the run (3.2 per carry).
    • Derrick Henry: 147 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 38% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
    • JAX allowed less than league average per carry in 4 of 6 games
    • Justice Hill: 21 carries here, 6.7 per carry, 38% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Derrick Henry (the data leans under).
  • Play to its strengthMixedBAL's passing to wide receivers ranks 1st in EPA; JAX ranks 15th against it. Zay Flowers gets 33% of the targets.
    • Zay Flowers on these targets: 53, 75% caught, 11.5 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Zay Flowers (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesJAX 4-2, 1st in the AFC South (leads); BAL 4-3, 4th in the AFC North (1 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2023 wk 15: BAL 23-7 at JAX -- first meeting since 2023.
  • RevengeBAL vs a former team: Calais Campbell (DL, JAX 2017-19).
  • SpotShort week for both; BAL lost 35-13 vs CIN last week.
vs INDLast week@ BUF
@ TENNext weekvs LAC
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
4,944 mi27th8th1,150 mi
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
4thOffense9th
13thDefense21st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+2.5 JAX vs BAL −2.5
pass OFF3rd19thpass DEF
run blocking*28th9thrun DEF up front*
travel4,944 mi, 21 days27th8thtravel1,150 mi, 21 days
big-play DEF20th5thbig-play OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 22nd23rd8thOFF vs zone*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+2.5 JAX vs BAL −2.5
JAX OFF vs BAL DEF
OFF vs zone*2nd15thzone coverage*zone rate 19th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 12th8th20thDEF vs 11 personnel*
OFF vs the blitz10th19thblitzing DEFblitz rate 14th
pass protection*6th14thpass rush*
early-down OFF7th15thearly-down DEF
OFF vs man*16th24thman coverage*man rate 14th
big-play OFF7th14thbig-play DEF
protection vs no blitz24th10thpass rush w/o blitz
run OFF10th14thrun DEF
third-down OFF6th11ththird-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 13th2nd1stplay-action DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 11th4th8thDEF vs 12 personnel*
JAX DEF vs BAL OFF
run DEF6th15thrun OFF
man coverage*man rate 11th1st7thOFF vs man*
pass DEF20th6thpass OFF
pass rush w/o blitz22nd8thprotection vs no blitz
play-action DEF14th1stplay-action OFFPA rate 7th
early-down DEF20th8thearly-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*27th17th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 24th
pass rush*15th18thpass protection*
third-down DEF16th20ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*14th18thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 15th4th2ndOFF vs the blitz
DEF vs 12 personnel*3rd8th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 7th
Pace & tendencies
30.4s17thSeconds between snaps29th32.0s
62.522ndPlays per game19th63.7
-0.3%14thPass rate over expected22nd-2.1%
3%26thNo-huddle rate24th4%
55%25thShotgun rate24th56%
64%8thMotion rate6th65%
23%13thPlay-action rate7th27%
2.71s24thTime to throw*5th3.09s
60%12th11 personnel*24th52%
28%11th12 personnel*7th32%
31%15thDEF blitz rate14th31%
26%11thDEF man rate*14th22%
62.322ndPlays faced per game21st62.6
JAX away 1 ATS trend
BAL home 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
1 trend

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.