Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
LV@
SF
SF -9.5 · O/U 48.5
LVSunday 2026-11-08
4:05pm
FOX
62°F · wind 9 mph · 💧 12%
SFHow to attack
LV offense vs SF defense- Throw to the backsMixedSF ranks 30th vs backs in EPA per target: 89% caught, 6.2 yds per target, 49 per game. Best fits: Ashton Jeanty (17% of targets, 4 in the red zone).
- Without LB Dre Greenlaw (wk 6): 4.9 yds per target on 7 targets; with him 6.5 on 42; expected back
- Ashton Jeanty on these targets: 44, 77% caught, 7.1 yds each (league 78%, 5.6)
- Two big plays make it (25 yds wk 4 vs DEN, 19 wk 7 vs ATL); without them 5.6 (league 5.6)
- SF allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Ashton Jeanty (the data leans over). - Don't lean on the runMixedSF ranks 1st vs the run (3.3 per carry); LV's run game ranks 31st (3.1).
- Ashton Jeanty: 106 carries here, 3.1 per carry, 31% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
- SF allowed less than league average per carry in 6 of 7 games
- Mike Washington Jr.: 40 carries here, 4.9 per carry, 30% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
- Dylan Laube: 5 carries here, 1.8 per carry, 20% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Ashton Jeanty (the data leans under). - Tough spot for Brock BowersSolidSF ranks 2nd vs tight ends (5.5 yds per target). He gets 21% of LV's targets.
- Without LB Dre Greenlaw (wk 6): 9.1 yds per target on 8 targets; with him 5.2 on 41; expected back
- Brock Bowers on these targets: 51, 67% caught, 8.9 yds each (league 72%, 7.1)
- SF allowed less than league average per target in 6 of 7 games
- Last 2 games SF allowed 7.1 per target; 4.8 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Brock Bowers (the data leans under).
SF offense vs LV defense- Throw to the backsSolidLV ranks 32nd vs backs in EPA per target: 93% caught, 8.3 yds per target, 36 per game. Best fits: Christian McCaffrey (22% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
- Without S Treydan Stukes (wk 3): 3.8 yds per target on 6 targets; with him 9.1 on 21; expected back
- Christian McCaffrey on these targets: 42, 81% caught, 6.0 yds each (league 78%, 5.6)
- LV allowed more than league average per target in 5 of 6 games
- Last 2 games LV allowed 13.0 per target; 6.4 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Christian McCaffrey (the data leans over). - Run outside, not insideMixedLV allows 6.1 per carry outside the tackles (32nd) but 4.6 between the guards (2nd). Christian McCaffrey has 49% of the backs' carries lately (11 a game).
- Without S Treydan Stukes (wk 3): 5.8 per carry on 8 carries; with him 6.7 on 40; expected back
- Christian McCaffrey: 27 carries here, 5.4 per carry, 56% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
- LV allowed more than league average per carry in 4 of 7 games
- Kaelon Black: 19 carries here, 4.0 per carry, 53% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Christian McCaffrey (the data leans over). - Attack the short rightSolidLV gives up 7.0 yds per target to the short right (32nd, 71 targets). Christian McCaffrey has 14 targets there this season.
- Without CB Darien Porter (wk 2, 3, 4): 5.9 yds per target on 35 targets; with him 8.0 on 36; expected back
- Christian McCaffrey on these targets: 14, 100% caught, 5.4 yds each (league 69%, 5.6)
- LV allowed more than league average per target in 7 of 7 games
- Last 2 games LV allowed 7.6 per target; 6.6 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Christian McCaffrey (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesLV 3-4, 3rd in the AFC West (2.5 back); SF 6-1, 1st in the NFC West (leads).
- HistoryLast met 2022 wk 17: SF 37-34 at LV -- first meeting since 2022.
- RevengeLV vs a former team: Spencer Burford (G, SF 2022-25).
- StreakSF is off its first loss of the season.
- SpotSF off a bye.
@ NYJLast weekBye
vs SEANext week@ DAL
–OFF plays last game65
–DEF plays last game63
Miles flown, last 21 days
4,841 mi25th24th4,224 mi
Exclude LV weeks
Exclude SF weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
16thOffense2nd
22ndDefense12th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+9.5 LV vs SF −9.5
vs SF −9.5play-action OFFPA rate 14th8th23rdplay-action DEF
run DEF up front*32nd2ndrun blocking*
early-down DEF30th1stearly-down OFF
man coverage*man rate 15th30th2ndOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*31st3rd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 31st
pass DEF27th1stpass OFF
run OFF32nd10thrun DEF
zone coverage*zone rate 18th19th1stOFF vs zone*
run DEF18th1strun OFF
pass rush*19th2ndpass protection*
third-down DEF22nd5ththird-down OFF
big-play DEF19th3rdbig-play OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+9.5 LV vs SF −9.5
vs SF −9.5LV OFF vs SF DEF
pass protection*12th20thpass rush*
OFF vs man*10th18thman coverage*man rate 22nd
protection vs no blitz30th16thpass rush w/o blitz
big-play OFF15th2ndbig-play DEF
run blocking*32nd22ndrun DEF up front*
early-down OFF21st12thearly-down DEF
OFF vs zone*16th7thzone coverage*zone rate 11th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 32nd25th18thDEF vs 11 personnel*
pass OFF15th14thpass DEF
third-down OFF11th15ththird-down DEF
OFF vs the blitz19th14thblitzing DEFblitz rate 13th
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 1st15th13thDEF vs 12 personnel*
LV DEF vs SF OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*17th6th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 24th
blitzing DEFblitz rate 20th15th5thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF30th20thplay-action OFFPA rate 18th
pass rush w/o blitz5th1stprotection vs no blitz
Pace & tendencies
29.1s7thSeconds between snaps26th31.4s
67.09thPlays per game30th59.4
-1.2%19thPass rate over expected10th+0.5%
9%8thNo-huddle rate30th2%
59%19thShotgun rate30th49%
61%13thMotion rate1st76%
23%14thPlay-action rate18th22%
2.74s23rdTime to throw*10th3.03s
16%32nd11 personnel*31st32%
49%1st12 personnel*24th19%
27%20thDEF blitz rate13th32%
20%15thDEF man rate*22nd17%
66.011thPlays faced per game11th66.0
LV
away
2 ATS trends
LV+9.5
ATSCousins as a road dog of more than 3 points
61.0%
win rate
25-16-1
record
+16.4%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLLWWWLLWWLWPWLWWWL
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +1.3 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +1.4 ppg
since 2003: 25-16-1 (61.0%) · avg cover +1.0 ppg
LV+9.5
ATSAs a dog of more than 7 points, against a team off a bye, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
63.6%
win rate
14-8-1
record
+21.5%
roi
+2.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLLLWLWWWWWWWLLPLWW
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +3.0 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +2.5 ppg
since 2003: 14-8-1 (63.6%) · avg cover +2.8 ppg
SF
home
2 ATS trends
SF-9.5
ATSfadeFading teams in a non-conference game, against a team off a bye, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
70.8%
win rate
17-7-1
record
+35.2%
roi
+2.0ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWWLLLPWLWWLWWWLWL
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover -0.2 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.9 ppg
since 2003: 17-7-1 (70.8%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
SF-9.5
ATSPurdy as a fav, outdoors
61.9%
win rate
26-16
record
+18.2%
roi
+3.2ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWLWLLWLLWLWWWWWLWL
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +0.3 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.4 ppg
since 2003: 26-16 (61.9%) · avg cover +3.2 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Over 48.5
Over
Kyle Shanahan as a fav of more than 3 points, off a loss
73.7%
win rate
14-5
record
+40.7%
roi
+5.7ppg
avg over
📈
WWWWWWWWLLLWLLWWWWW
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +1.4 ppg
since 2003: 14-5 (73.7%) · avg over +5.7 ppg
Over 48.5
Over
Brock Purdy as a fav of more than 3 points
64.1%
win rate
25-14-1
record
+22.4%
roi
+5.0ppg
avg over
📈
WWLWWLWWLLWWLLWWWWWL
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg over +4.8 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +7.8 ppg
since 2003: 25-14-1 (64.1%) · avg over +5.0 ppg
Over 48.5
Over
Kirk Cousins as a dog of more than 3 points
62.3%
win rate
33-20
record
+18.9%
roi
+3.4ppg
avg over
📈
WWWWWWWLLLWWWWLWWWWW
last 20: 16-4 (80.0%) · avg over +9.3 ppg
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg over +9.1 ppg
since 2003: 33-20 (62.3%) · avg over +3.4 ppg
- Levi's Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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