New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
NYJ@
KC
KC -9.5 · O/U 43.5
NYJSunday 2026-11-08
1:00pm
CBS
55°F · wind 6 mph · 💧 13%
KCHow to attack
NYJ offense vs KC defense- Red-zone stalls likelyNYJ scores touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (25th); KC allows them on 31.2% (3rd).
- Jason Sanders: 13 of 15 on field goals, 3 of 4 from 50+, long 54; missed in wk 1, 7
- KC allowed TDs on 5 of 16 trips (1/2, 2/3, 1/2, 1/3, 0/3, 0/3 by game)
- NYJ scored TDs on 9 of 18 trips (2/3, 2/3, 2/3, 0/1, 0/1, 0/3, 3/4 by game)
Angleno FGs made line posted yet for Jason Sanders (the data leans over). - Attack the deep leftShakyKC gives up 12.1 yds per target to the deep left (30th, 17 targets). Garrett Wilson has 4 targets there this season.
- Without DB Chamarri Conner (wk 1, 2, 3): 3.9 yds per target on 10 targets; with him 23.9 on 7; expected back
- Garrett Wilson on these targets: 4, 50% caught, 10.8 yds each (league 40%, 10.9)
- Two big plays make it (57 yds wk 6 vs LAC, 28 wk 7 vs SEA); without them 8.1 (league 10.9)
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Garrett Wilson (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
KC offense vs NYJ defense- Beat the blitzNYJ blitzes on 38.4% of dropbacks (7th-most); KC ranks 7th in EPA against the blitz.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Patrick Mahomes (the data leans over).
- Attack the short rightShakyNYJ gives up 5.5 yds per target to the short right (30th, 77 targets). Xavier Worthy has 17 targets there this season.
- Without DB Jarvis Brownlee (wk 7): 7.3 yds per target on 10 targets; with him 5.4 on 55; expected back
- Xavier Worthy on these targets: 17, 82% caught, 5.0 yds each (league 69%, 5.6)
- Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 5 vs CLE, 16 wk 6 vs NE); without them 5.2 (league 5.6)
- NYJ allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Xavier Worthy (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Motivation & storylines
- StakesNYJ 2-5, 3rd in the AFC East (3.5 back); KC 5-1, 1st in the AFC West (leads).
- HistoryLast met 2023 wk 4: KC 23-20 at NYJ -- first meeting since 2023.
- RevengeKC vs a former team: Justin Fields (QB, NYJ 2025).
- SpotNYJ lost 28-25 vs MIA as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
vs LVLast week@ DEN
vs BUFNext week@ ATL
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,086 mi6th23rd4,146 mi
Exclude NYJ weeks
Exclude KC weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
15thOffense7th
17thDefense15th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+9.5 NYJ vs KC −9.5
vs KC −9.5travel1,086 mi, 21 days6th23rdtravel4,146 mi, 21 days
OFF vs the blitz12th27thblitzing DEFblitz rate 23rd
run DEF up front*24th4thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 7th25th7thOFF vs the blitz
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 13th22nd5thDEF vs 11 personnel*
run OFF20th4thrun DEF
DEF vs 11 personnel*23rd7th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 23rd
run blocking*22nd7thrun DEF up front*
early-down DEF25th10thearly-down OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+9.5 NYJ vs KC −9.5
vs KC −9.5NYJ OFF vs KC DEF
OFF vs zone*17th30thzone coverage*zone rate 25th
play-action OFFPA rate 22nd9th21stplay-action DEF
pass OFF12th18thpass DEF
pass protection*19th25thpass rush*
early-down OFF12th5thearly-down DEF
OFF vs man*25th19thman coverage*man rate 8th
big-play OFF13th9thbig-play DEF
protection vs no blitz23rd20thpass rush w/o blitz
third-down OFF27th23rdthird-down DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 12th5th5thDEF vs 12 personnel*
NYJ DEF vs KC OFF
pass rush w/o blitz18th28thprotection vs no blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 23rd12th19thOFF vs zone*
run DEF17th3rdrun OFF
pass DEF23rd10thpass OFF
play-action DEF14th5thplay-action OFFPA rate 3rd
man coverage*man rate 10th13th6thOFF vs man*
big-play DEF3rd2ndbig-play OFF
pass rush*16th15thpass protection*
third-down DEF18th17ththird-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*18th18th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 5th
Pace & tendencies
31.7s27thSeconds between snaps14th29.9s
60.329thPlays per game26th61.7
-2.6%23rdPass rate over expected3rd+4.1%
4%23rdNo-huddle rate32nd0%
57%23rdShotgun rate15th62%
48%30thMotion rate15th59%
21%22ndPlay-action rate3rd31%
2.98s14thTime to throw*21st2.75s
60%13th11 personnel*23rd53%
27%12th12 personnel*5th34%
38%7thDEF blitz rate23rd27%
27%10thDEF man rate*8th27%
65.913thPlays faced per game9th67.7
NYJ
away
1 ATS trend
NYJ+9.5
ATSSmith as a dog of more than 7 points
64.7%
win rate
11-6-1
record
+23.5%
roi
+1.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WWPWLWWWLLLWLWLWWW
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -2.3 ppg
since 2003: 11-6-1 (64.7%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Under 43.5
Under
Andy Reid as a home fav of more than 7 points
69.9%
win rate
51-22-3
record
+33.4%
roi
+4.9ppg
avg under
🔥
LLLWWWWLWLWWWLWWWWWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg under +4.8 ppg
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg under +8.6 ppg
since 2003: 51-22-3 (69.9%) · avg under +4.9 ppg
Under 43.5
Under
Patrick Mahomes at home
62.8%
win rate
49-29-1
record
+19.9%
roi
+3.2ppg
avg under
📈
LWLWWWLWLWLWWWWWWWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg under +3.5 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +5.3 ppg
since 2003: 49-29-1 (62.8%) · avg under +3.2 ppg
Under 43.5
Under
Geno Smith as a dog, outdoors
64.6%
win rate
31-17-1
record
+23.3%
roi
+4.1ppg
avg under
📈
LWWLLWWWWLWLWLWWWWWL
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +3.6 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +4.7 ppg
since 2003: 31-17-1 (64.6%) · avg under +4.1 ppg
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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