Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
TB@
CHI
CHI -6 · O/U 47.5
TBSunday 2026-11-08
8:20pm
NBC
47°F · wind 7 mph · 💧 7%
CHIHow to attack
TB offense vs CHI defense- Play to its strengthMixedTB's outside run game ranks 3rd in EPA; CHI ranks 24th against it. Bucky Irving has 62% of the backs' carries lately (21 a game).
- Bucky Irving: 58 carries here, 6.3 per carry, 48% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
- Kenny Gainwell: 13 carries here, 4.8 per carry, 38% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Bucky Irving (the data leans over).
CHI offense vs TB defense- Beat the blitzTB blitzes on 40.9% of dropbacks (5th-most); CHI ranks 4th in EPA against the blitz.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Caleb Williams (the data leans over).
- Time to throw for Caleb WilliamsMixedTB hits or sacks the QB on only 12.8% of dropbacks (27th-most).
- TB below the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 7 games
- Last 2 games TB hit or sacked the QB on 17% of dropbacks; 11% before
Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Caleb Williams (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesTB 2-5, 4th in the NFC South (1.5 back); CHI 5-2, 2nd in the NFC North (1.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2023 wk 2: TB 27-17 at TB -- first meeting since 2023.
- RevengeTB vs a former team: Al-Quadin Muhammad (LB, CHI 2022).
- SpotTB won 43-13 at CAR as a 3-point underdog last week.
vs ATLLast week@ SEA
ByeNext weekBye
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,022 mi12th21st3,468 mi
Exclude TB weeks
Exclude CHI weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
28thOffense8th
2ndDefense16th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+6 TB vs CHI −6
vs CHI −6run blocking*9th29thrun DEF up front*
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 7th24th4thDEF vs 11 personnel*
pass OFF30th11thpass DEF
third-down OFF18th1stthird-down DEF
OFF vs man*24th9thman coverage*man rate 4th
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+6 TB vs CHI −6
vs CHI −6TB OFF vs CHI DEF
run OFF7th20thrun DEF
protection vs no blitz3rd13thpass rush w/o blitz
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 15th22nd32ndDEF vs 12 personnel*
OFF vs zone*32nd18thzone coverage*zone rate 29th
OFF vs the blitz24th18thblitzing DEFblitz rate 4th
big-play OFF27th31stbig-play DEF
pass protection*11th13thpass rush*
early-down OFF23rd27thearly-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 20th31st26thplay-action DEF
TB DEF vs CHI OFF
run DEF5th12thrun OFF
pass rush*30th20thpass protection*
run DEF up front*16th7thrun blocking*
pass rush w/o blitz21st15thprotection vs no blitz
pass DEF5th7thpass OFF
big-play DEF15th14thbig-play OFF
third-down DEF9th7ththird-down OFF
early-down DEF8th9thearly-down OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 5th1st4thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF24th22ndplay-action OFFPA rate 1st
man coverage*man rate 24th8th11thOFF vs man*
zone coverage*zone rate 9th5th6thOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 11 personnel*1st4th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 26th
DEF vs 12 personnel*26th25th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 3rd
Pace & tendencies
32.2s30thSeconds between snaps8th29.3s
65.315thPlays per game1st74.4
-3.3%25thPass rate over expected18th-1.2%
7%11thNo-huddle rate21st4%
65%13thShotgun rate26th55%
68%4thMotion rate24th54%
21%20thPlay-action rate1st33%
3.09s7thTime to throw*4th3.11s
68%7th11 personnel*26th48%
23%15th12 personnel*3rd35%
41%5thDEF blitz rate4th41%
17%24thDEF man rate*4th31%
61.028thPlays faced per game32nd52.7
CHI
home
4 ATS trends
CHI-6
ATSWilliams as a fav
71.4%
win rate
10-4-1
record
+36.4%
roi
+3.4ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWLPWWLWLWW
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +3.8 ppg
since 2003: 10-4-1 (71.4%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg
CHI-6
ATSfadeFading teams in primetime, playing 15°+ colder than at home
61.7%
win rate
29-18-1
record
+17.8%
roi
+3.9ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWLWLLLLWLWWLWWLW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +8.2 ppg
since 2003: 29-18-1 (61.7%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
CHI-6
ATSfadeFading Bowles in primetime
64.3%
win rate
18-10-1
record
+22.7%
roi
+1.2ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWWWWWLLWWLWWLWWWL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg
since 2003: 18-10-1 (64.3%) · avg cover +1.2 ppg
CHI-6
ATSJohnson at home
69.2%
win rate
9-4-1
record
+32.2%
roi
+5.2ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWLPWWLWWLWWW
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +4.9 ppg
since 2003: 9-4-1 (69.2%) · avg cover +5.2 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Under 47.5
Under
Baker Mayfield on the road, in primetime, outdoors
80.0%
win rate
8-2
record
+52.7%
roi
+4.8ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWLWWWWL
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +4.8 ppg
since 2003: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +4.8 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Ben Johnson at home
71.4%
win rate
10-4
record
+36.4%
roi
+4.7ppg
avg under
📈
LWWWLWWWLWWWWL
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +6.4 ppg
since 2003: 10-4 (71.4%) · avg under +4.7 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Todd Bowles on the road, in primetime
68.8%
win rate
11-5
record
+31.3%
roi
+2.4ppg
avg under
📈
WWLWLWWWWLLLWWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +4.5 ppg
since 2003: 11-5 (68.8%) · avg under +2.4 ppg
- Soldier Field
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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